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"February’s data shows unemployment rates dropping for the majority of jurisdictions in the region. Meanwhile, job posting intensity has steadily declined suggesting that employers are filling jobs more rapidly. Management, training and communications are among the most in-demand skills in current job postings. And while technical skills are still expected of job-seekers, the ability to work with and develop others is key." - Phil Blair, President & CEO, Manpower
Understanding our economy begins with strong data. Lucky for us, Feb/March means lots of it.
A little about the research products released this week:
Check out the full Quarterly Economic Snapshot here.
Brought to you by:
For more more on TPP and San Diego, see WTCSD's economic impact report.
Now that the holidays are behind us, let’s take a look at some of the data. Early indicators point to another strong holiday shopping season in 2016, beating already lofty forecasts for retail sales1. San Diego’s employment grew by 12,100 in November, as retailers staffed up to meet the surge of shoppers2. But a lot of that hiring is seasonal, and these seasonal boosts are trending down. In fact, growth in retail trade employment has slowed dramatically over the past two years to a mere 0.1 percent.
Local employment in retail trade remains 2.8 percent below the pre-recession peak; 11 percent of regional unemployment comes from the industry3. This is because shoppers are increasingly turning to online retailers rather than brick and mortar stores – a trend that has continued to grow since the advent of e-commerce giants like Amazon.com (see chart below).
Traditional retailers are struggling to compete. Last week both Macy’s and Sears announced hundreds of store closures, which will bring thousands of layoffs across the U.S. In San Diego, Macy’s apparel store in Mission Valley will be shutting its doors, leaving 140 people without jobs4.
Changes in technology have had a profound impact on the economy and the composition of jobs. And while the tech boom has brought about gains in productivity, e-commerce and automation are displacing retail workers. These are jobs that are mostly held by women, and where more than half are held by people under the age of 355.
1. National Retail Federation: https://nrf.com/news/retail-sales-see-solid-gains-first-half-of-holiday-season
2. San Diego December 2016 LMI Release: http://www.labormarketinfo.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sand$pds.pdf
3. EMSI; CA LMI; BLS; Infogroup
4. Macy’s Press Release: http://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20170104-910412
5. EMSI; CA LMI; BLS; Infogroup
As an organization that aims to support growth of San Diego’s regional economy, EDC understands the importance of including all communities in our work. There is much debate about what the term ‘inclusive economic growth’ means, and it’s something we are working with partners to better define in 2017. In order to understand – and define it – we must know where we currently stand.
EDC took a closer look at the 18 cities comprising the county. The large discrepancies in poverty rates, income and education across San Diego cities show that while we are part of the largest economies in the world, we have much to improve upon.
According to the American Community Survey, San Diego’s poverty rate is 13.8 percent – slightly below the national and state rates of 14.7 and 15.3 percent, respectively. However, eight cities in the region have poverty rates above the national average. The region’s educational attainment of 36 percent is above the national and state rates of 30.1 and 31.7, respectively, but 10 regional cities fall below the national rate. Similarly, even when the region’s median household income of $66.2K is over 20 percent higher than the national median household income of $53.7K, six out of the 18 cities fall below the national median.
Highlights from the analysis:
Understanding any economy starts with strong data. At EDC, we pour significant resources into research, so we can better understand San Diego's economic strengths, and even more importantly, our weaknesses.
Finding the right data to quantify our economy and understand where San Diego’s stack up with other regions is where it becomes more difficult. Many regions – including San Diego – call themselves innovative, but measuring it becomes more complicated.
In 2012, EDC joined the Global Cities Initiative (GCI), a joint project between Brookings and JPMorgan Chase, which helps metropolitan leaders grow their regional economies by strengthening international connections and competitiveness. Conducting independent research has been a cornerstone of the GCI since its launch.
This week, EDC/World Trade Center San Diego staff traveled to Washington, D.C. to take part in the Brookings Global Cities Summit – a culmination of five years of research and exchanges to help metros grow their economy.
Based on five years of research, “Redefining Global Cities," the latest Brookings report, found that there were seven types of global cities.
There are the Global Giants – regions like London, New York and Paris; these cities are financial hubs and serve as the control center for the world’s largest economies. Then there are the American Middleweights (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Saint Louis, etc.) and the International Middleweights (Frankfurt, Munich, Rome, Barcelona, Toronto, etc.): connected and important mid-sized cities where post-recession growth has lagged. And then there are the Knowledge Capitals – 19 mid-sized cities throughout the U.S. and Europe that are home to talented workforces and elite research universities.
San Diego is in good company as a Knowledge Capital with Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Stockholm, Zurich and others.
Turns out, when it comes to patent intensity, San Diego is second out of 123 global cities. When we say that San Diego is innovative, it’s not just boosterism – we have the data to back it up.
As a Knowledge Capital, San Diego may attract a highly-educated workforce and high-levels of entrepreneurship, but one area where it lags is foreign direct investment. Nearly 98 percent of our economic growth is going to come from growing small and medium-sized enterprises and startups already present in the region. San Diego’s participation in the Global Cities Initiative is not just an opportunity to connect with likeminded cities; it’s an opportunity to connect with and better understand our customers. After all, our SMEs will not reach peak growth rates without expanding their businesses and finding customers outside the region. As a response to this insight, we founded the MetroConnect Initiative, a comprehensive export assistance program now in its second year.
As a region, we’re proud to be known as a Knowledge Capital, but our work is still cut out for us. By connecting with other GCI cities, we can expedite our economic growth through careful understanding and analysis of best practices. And through insightful data and programs like MetroConnect, we’re hopeful that we’re well on our way.
This week, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker and Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf joined a panel of local business leaders from Solar Turbines, Solatube and Northrop Grumman to unveil UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy’s new study on the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to the nation and San Diego. The summary, “San Diego and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” produced by World Trade Center San Diego, explains how San Diego’s unique economic assets position the region to realize relatively greater benefits from TPP than the U.S. as a whole.
TPP, an international trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration and 11 other Pacific Rim countries, seeks to lower trade barriers for exporters and increase intellectual property protections for multinational companies.
San Diego’s prime location on the edge of the Pacific Rim, as well its specialization in advanced manufacturing and other key industries tied to the innovation economy – including scientific R&D, engineering, software and cybersecurity – position the region to benefit disproportionately from TPP.
Key findings include:
“While June's unemployment rate climbed – a typical trend as educational workers tend to lose employment during summer – key sectors like leisure and hospitality, PST and PBS all experienced strong year-over-year growth. San Diego's unemployment rate continues to remains lower than statewide unemployment.”
Phil Blair, Executive Officer
Manpower San Diego
This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower.
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for June in addition to revised data for May 2016. This month’s data shows that San Diego's economy has slowed during the summer months; unemployment experienced an increase while total regional employment grew more slowly than previous months.
June’s unemployment rate climbed back to 5.1 percent for the first time since October 2015; up 0.9 percentage points from a revised 4.2 percent in May. The unemployment rate is down 0.1 points from the previous year. San Diego’s unemployment rate continues to remain lower than statewide unemployment and is now on par with national unemployment rates of 5.7 and 5.1 percent, respectively.
San Diego’s rate rose in part due to an increase in the labor force. A familiar trend in the region this time of year as many public and private seasonal educational workers tend to lose employment during the summer months. Education accounted for nearly 1,000 jobs lost during May and June combined. Although a seasonal uptick in unemployment is common during the summer, the increase of 0.9 percentage points is significantly higher than seen in recent years. Additional job losses in finance and insurance in addition to health care and social assistance also contributed to the increase in unemployment.
Total nonfarm employment increased steadily since May, adding 8,000 jobs. More importantly, year-over-year nonfarm employment went up by 37,600, a 2.7 percent increase. The private sector drove employment growth in June, as private employment accounted for nearly 83.2 percent, or an increase of 31,300 jobs, of all employment growth over the year. The total private sector grew by 2.7 percent year-over-year.
At the height of summer and peak tourism season, the region’s leisure and hospitality industry was the largest driver of regional employment growth, adding 5,400 jobs since May. Leisure and hospitality experienced strong year-over-year growth, adding 7,800 jobs, a 4.2 per
cent increase over the previous year, and contributing to 24.9 percent of private sector growth.
Professional, scientific and technical services (PST), a subset of professional and business services (PBS) and strongly associated with the region’s innovation economy, accounted for over 11.5 percent of private sector growth, adding 1,000 jobs since May.
While the June report released today showed increased unemployment in the region’s economy, which is in line with familiar seasonal trends, overall job growth was solid. Unemployment remains well below the state and year-over growth in the region was spread out across a variety of base sectors.
This report was performed with assistance from the CBRE research team in San Diego.