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August 28, 2015

GLOBAL-SD-LOGO-F-ALL

Lately trade has been on the minds of everyone, with Trade Promotion Authority’s (TPA) passage in June, discussions around the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) hopefully wrapping up this month, and the ongoing negotiations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Exports and trade have become the driving force behind discussions around U.S. job growth and the nation’s continued recovery from the Great Recession.

“As U.S. firms produce and sell their world-class products to customers around the globe, each transaction strengthens our local and national economies, and creates jobs here at home.”U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker

We know that supporting companies’ ability to export their goods and services is important for the economic prosperity of San Diego. Exports help sustain jobs, allow companies to pay higher wages, and spur more efficient development of technology and research and development. In 2014 alone, exports supported 72,716 direct and 131,605 indirect jobs.

Earlier this year, the Brooking Institution released new data for its Metropolitan Export Monitor. This data has been the basis for the development of the Go Global San Diego: Trade and Investment Plan, released in March 2015. Although the Export Monitor employs International Trade Administration data, the Export Monitor differs by examining production location vs. origin-of-movement. The full complete methodology can be found by going to the Brookings Institution’s website. Over the next month, we will be examining this new data.                          

In 2014, San Diego was ranked as the 16th largest metropolitan region in the U.S. in terms of its GDP ($206.1 billion) and the value of its real exports ($20.6 billion). However, when comparing export intensity (exports as a share of GDP) among the top 100 metropolitan regions, San Diego ranks 50th (10.03 percent). San Diego has been consistently improving this number over the last four years, ranking 60th (9.62 percent) in 2011. This ranking puts San Diego above peer metros such as Minneapolis (56th), New York (65th), Baltimore (90th), and Washington D.C. (95th).

Even when comparing San Diego’s export intensity to the top 25 metros by GDP, San Diego still falls below the median – ranking 14th. However, San Diego experienced the 2nd largest growth in its exports value, growing by more than 6.6 percent, with San Jose growing at 7.3 percent. Lastly, our region had the largest percent increase in its export intensity – growing by 3.9 percent. The only metro which came close to this level of growth was Seattle, increasing by 2.9 percent.

"San Diego’s international trade opportunities have been moving in a very positive direction since we first examined this element of our economy in 2012. But while we have seen export activity continue to grow each year, there is still a lot more we can be doing to better connect our economy to foreign markets,” said Mark Cafferty, president & CEO at San Diego Regional EDC. “With support from dozens of partners and business groups throughout our mega-region, our Go Global San Diego Initiative aims to increase exports, attract more investment and maximize our global competitiveness.”

The Go Global San Diego Initiative was launched in partnership with more than 20 business, civic, and community leaders. The initiative implements five strategies in order to: (1) drive job growth through expanding FDI and international exports; (2) deepen economic ties between the San Diego region and strategic markets; and (3) enhance our regional identity to increase the region’s global fluency and competitiveness. 

 


In the comings weeks, we will be posting more information regarding San Diego's exports. Subscribe here to receive the latest information. 

 

August 21, 2015

Phil Blair

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“Every indicator points San Diego in a positive direction, especially employment growth figures, which are really picking up speed. Every year, thousands of education workers temporarily respond as unemployed once schools go on summer break, but these people do not actually leave the labor force. We should not be concerned about the four tenths uptick in unemployment.
Phil Blair, Executive Officer
Manpower San Diego


This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower. Click images to enlarge in a new tab/window.

Highlights

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the July 2015 period. This month’s data shows that while unemployment climbed slightly in June, the labor force grew and the economy continued growth at a steady rate.

The unemployment rate climbed above 5 percent to 5.4 percent in July. The rate is 1.5 points lower than the previous year and 0.4 points higher than the previous month. The California average rate also climbed to 6.5 percent, while the U.S. average rate climbed slightly to 5.6 percent, meaning San Diego remained much lower than the state and national averages.

The unemployment rate almost always climbs substantially from June to July due to seasonal effects related to education employment. Every year, thousands of education workers temporarily report to EDD as unemployed once schools go on summer break, but these people do not actually leave the labor force. From June to July 2015, public and private education employment fell by 14,500. This drives up the unemployment rate despite an otherwise healthy economy. Looking at the year-over-year change demonstrates this another way. From July 2014 to July 2015, total unemployment filings fell by 20.0 percent and the rate fell by 1.5 points, all while 26,600 people were added to the labor force.

Unemployment Rate

The region’s economy picked up dramatically. San Diego's total nonfarm employment grew by 3.6 percent year-over-year, adding 48,200 jobs from July 2014 to July 2015. This is the highest year-over-year percent change since March 2012 to March 2013. San Diego's growth rate was much higher than the 2.1 percent national rate. The San Diego region is now expected to average 3.2 percent annual growth in 2015, compared to only 2.3 percent in 2014.

Despite the overall seasonal decline in employment, the private sector economy actually added more than 10,000 jobs from June to July, mostly in the tourism and innovation economy. Year-over-year, the total private sector grew by 3.9 percent, outpacing the private U.S. growth rate of 2.4 percent. Roughly three-fourths of all year-over-year private job growth in San Diego came from five key sectors: construction, manufacturing, tourism, health care, and professional, scientific and technical services (PST).

Total Nonfarm Employment

Goods-producing industries continued to show strong growth, alone accounting for 17.1 percent of all private job growth. From July 2014 to July 2015, the manufacturing industry added 2,500 jobs and grew by 2.6 percent growth. The ship and boat building industry continued to grow at an outstanding rate. Meanwhile, the construction industry added 5,000 jobs and grew by 7.8 percent.

The professional, scientific and technical services (PST) sector grew by 7.4 percent year-to-year, and accounted for 21.9 percent of all annual private job growth—the most of any sector in the region. This sector represents many of our innovation employers. Scientific research and development services, a subsector of PST that represents many cleantech and life science companies, grew at an impressive 5.2 percent rate.

YoY

Other key drivers for growth included the region’s health care sector, which added 6,200 jobs and accounted for approximately 14.2 percent of the region’s private job growth. The tourism industry added 8,500 jobs and accounted for 19.4 percent of the region's growth. Employment services or staffing in the region grew by 1,600 jobs and has been steadily increasing all year. All of these industries grew faster than the overall private economy.

It is most important to emphasize that the seasonal climb in the unemployment rate is not indicative of problems in the economy. In fact, the economy appears to continue to pick up speed, particularly in a few key sectors. The unemployment rate is expected to fall the rest of 2015, likely dipping back below 5.0 percent by September. Compared to this time last year, the labor force is way up, unemployment is way down and employment is growing at a faster pace than it has for years, which are all great signs for San Diego.

Contributions

Note: Our Economic Indicators Dashboard will show how our unemployment rate compares to other US metros and the US total rate when that information is released in the coming weeks.

 

August 3, 2015

Recently, EDC released its June Manpower Monthly Employment Report. Since then, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released June employment data on all U.S. metros, which allows us to analyze some key indicators across geographies. Click on images to enlarge in a new window/tab.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • At 5.0 percent, San Diego’s unemployment rate ranked 10th among the 25 most populous U.S. metros.
  • From June 2014 to June 2015, San Diego's unemployment rate fell by -1.4 percentage points, which ranked 3rd.
  • San Diego's total employment grew by 2.8 percent from June 2014 to June 2015, which ranked 10th.
  • San Diego's employment in professional, scientific and technical services (PST) grew by 6.1 percentwhich ranked 3rd.
  • Manufacturing in San Diego grew by 2.8 percent from the previous year, the 6th highest growth rate.

[Unmployment Chart]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released employment data for the June 2015 period for all U.S. metro areas. At 5.0 percent, San Diego County’s unemployment rate fell by 1.4 points from this time last year. This was the 3rd largest drop in the nation, among the 25 most populous U.S. metros. That fall put San Diego's rank at 10th among major U.S. metros and it remained below the U.S. overall rate of 5.5 percent.  

[Employment Chart]

When looking at employment growth, San Diego remained well above the national average. From June 2014 to June 2015, the region's employment grew by 2.8 percent, which ranked 10th among the 25 most populous U.S. metros. The U.S. average growth rate was at only 2.1 percent. Growth has slowed substantially across the U.S. in the past few months, but has since picked up the pace. San Diego has consistently outpaced the national employment growth this year and has been among the top 10 competitive metros in the nation.

[PST Chart]

San Diego's innovation economy is largely driving the region's growth. The region is outpacing nearly all other major metros in professional, scientific and technical services (PST) growth. PST is a sector of the economy very heavily associated with the region's innovation clusters. Much of the companies and employment in clusters like biotechnology, biomedical products, cleantech and information technology fall within the PST sector. Employment in the region's PST sector grew by 6.1 percent since last June, the 3rd most out of any metro studied here. This figure was nearly double the U.S. average and only behind California peers San Francisco and Riverside, which is a positive sign for the state and region's key traded clusters.

[MFG Chart]

San Diego's manufacturing sector growth picked up substantially in June. Manufacturing is another key industry for growth in the region, not only because manufacturing jobs are accessible and pay well, but also because certain manufacturing subsectors are critical to the region's innovation clusters. From June 2014 to June 2015, manufacturing employment grew by 2.8 percent. San Diego's manufacturing employment growth was more than double the U.S. rate of 1.3 percent. The region recorded the 6th highest growth rate among major U.S. metros. This marks the first month on record that manufacturing employment grew at or even near the pace of the overall regional economy. San Francisco and Riverside also experienced outstanding growth in their manufacturing sectors, which is a good sign for the state's manufacturing economy.

San Diego's economy continues to track well above the U.S. average and many of its peers. Unemployment is lower than average and the region experienced one of the largest annual drops in the nation. Meanwhile, San Diego's PST industry continues to be among the fastest growing in the nation. It will be interesting to see if the region can continue to experience such stellar manufacturing growth as the industry continues to rebound. 

EDC will be releasing the Manpower Employment Report with July 2015 data for San Diego on Friday, August 21stThank you to Manpower-SD for their ongoing support of EDC's employment trends research.

July 17, 2015

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“The region’s labor force continues to grow substantially as jobs are being added at a very solid pace. Despite a slight climb in the unemployment rate, all signs point to a positive economic picture for the region going forward.”
Phil Blair, President and CEO
Manpower San Diego


Highlights

This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower. Click images to enlarge in a new tab/window.

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the June 2015 period. This month’s data shows that while unemployment climbed slightly in June, the labor force grew and the economy continued growth at a steady rate.

The unemployment rate climbed back to five percent for the first time since March. At 5.0 percent, the rate is 1.4 points lower than the previous year and 0.1 points higher than the previous month. The California average rate remained steady at 6.2 percent, while the U.S. average rate climbed to 5.5 percent, meaning San Diego remained much lower than the state and national averages.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate climbed in part due to a rising labor force. This trend is typical in the region, as both public and private seasonal education workers tend to lose work in the summer months. Education accounted for 3,000 lost jobs from May to June, but the sector has grown nearly three percent since June of last year. While a seasonal up-tick in unemployment is common during this period, the 0.1 point change was a much lower change than in previous years. The unemployment rate climbed 0.3 points in 2014 and 0.5 points in 2013 during this same period.

From a year-to-year or non-seasonal perspective, the region’s economy continued to grow around 3.0 percent, adding 38,500 jobs from June 2014 to June 2015. The year-to-year growth rate has been consistently above the 2014 annual average of 2.2 percent. So far in 2015, that annual average is at 3.0 percent through June, compared to the U.S. average of only 2.2 percent.

Total Nonfarm Employment

The private sector economy again accounted for more than 90 percent of the year-to-year job growth and grew by 3.2 percent. This rate also outpaced the U.S. growth rate, which was 2.6 percent over that same period. This job growth continued to be fueled by key sectors. Construction grew by 5.7 percent and added 3,600 jobs. One of the region’s key manufacturing sectors, ship and boat building, grew by 18.0 percent and added 1,100 jobs.

We’ve continued to discuss the stagnant growth in overall manufacturing employment in these reports, but June showed promise for the region’s manufacturing industry. From June 2014 to June 2015, the industry added 2,700 jobs or 2.8 percent growth. This is the highest annual growth rate for the industry that we have on record, going back to 2001.

Manufacturing

Innovation service sectors have continued to show high job growth through 2015. The professional, scientific and technical services (PST) sector grew by 6.0 percent year-to-year, and accounted for 22.1 percent of all annual private job growth—the most of any sector in the region. This sector represents many of our innovation employers. Scientific research and development services, a subsector of PST that represents many cleantech and life science companies, showed slower growth this month compared to previous months this year.

Other key drivers for growth included the region’s health care sector, which added 6,900 jobs and accounted for approximately one-fifth of the region’s private job growth. Employment services or staffing in the region grew by 1,300 jobs and has been steadily increasing all year. Finally, while the tourism industry had a slower month than usual, it still accounted for 14.7 percent of the region’s private growth.

Year-to-Year Growth

While the headlines this month will show a climb in the unemployment rate, the story behind that figure is a positive one. A climb in unemployment from May to June is typical, but the fact that the climb was so slight was atypical and a good sign. The labor force continued to grow above one percent annually after years of steady decline. Finally, manufacturing industry employment is showing solid growth after years of slow growth or decline.

Note: Our Economic Indicators Dashboard will show how our unemployment rate compares to other US metros and the US total rate when that information is released in the coming weeks.