Category: Research

Study release: One percent shift in procurement could mean thousands of jobs for San Diegans

By EDC Research Bureau,

EDC study quantifies the impact of increased local procurement

Today, as part of a commitment to inclusive economic recovery, EDC released a study and set of recommendations for large employers to support small businesses by buying local. “Anchor Institutions: Leveraging Big Buyers for Small Business“ analyzes the spend of more than a dozen local anchors and demonstrates the impact of increased local procurement on quality job creation.

Anchor institutions are defined as universities, hospitals, local government agencies, the U.S. Navy and other large employers that are physically bound to the region.

In San Diego, anchors represent eight of the region’s 10 largest employers—providing more than 72,000 jobs. They purchase tens of billions of dollars in goods and services every year, and yet, local anchors send about one-quarter of all procurement spend outside the region.

The web-based study—procurelocal.inclusivesd.org—includes a summary of local spending, a cluster map of anchor institutions in the region, estimated economic impact from increased local spending, and a set of recommendations for growing quality jobs across San Diego through procurement.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted people of color and spurred the closure of one-in-three small businesses across San Diego. Local small businesses employ nearly 60 percent of the total workforce, which is double the national average, and are responsible for nearly half of all job growth in the last five years. Despite their critical importance to the region’s economy, many small businesses report struggling to attract customers and generate new sales.

“Small business resiliency will be key in getting this recovery right. This report further demonstrates the importance of connecting our region’s small and diverse businesses to large, institutional buyers,” said Eduardo Velasquez, EDC Research Director. “This will mean more quality jobs for San Diegans, more thriving businesses and a stronger regional economy.”

KEY FINDINGS

  • Collectively, 14 anchors surveyed spend more than $9.9 billion each year on a range of goods and services, and only about $247 million of this reported spend can be traced back to San Diego businesses. Further, only a small proportion of this spend is reaching small (14 percent) and minority-owned or diverse businesses (11 percent).
  • Small shifts in procurement can mean big economic impact:
    • If the 14 anchors surveyed increased local construction spending by just one percent, it would put around $32 million into local construction businesses, adding $466 million to the local economy and helping create nearly 4,500 jobs in the region.
    • The same one percent increase in professional services (e.g. legal assistance) spending would pump nearly $12 million into local suppliers, resulting in an economic impact of nearly $56 million and support another 800 jobs.
    • The majority of these new jobs would be in industries with a higher-than-average concentration of quality jobs (those that pay middle-income wages).

“As a large employer that works with many diverse suppliers to meet our mission of delivering clean, safe and reliable energy, SDG&E understands the value small businesses bring to the regional economy,” said Christy Ihrig, vice president of operations support, SDG&E, anchor event and study sponsor. “When they thrive, our region thrives. To support economic recovery from the pandemic, we are more committed than ever to grow our supplier diversity program and encourage other local employers to do the same.”

Beyond impacts to suppliers and the regional economy at large, anchor institutions that buy from local, small, diverse businesses also stand to benefit. Specifically, several local anchors note that setting goals for greater procurement from these suppliers has resulted in greater customer service, supply chain diversity and resiliency, and stronger brand equity in the communities they serve.

“‘Shop local’ is about more than individuals; it means big business and organizations choosing to support their neighbors by buying in their communities. The City of San Diego takes pride in its efforts to work with local companies, is seeking increased opportunities to buy local and implores other local organizations to follow suit. Together, this is how we ensure a more equitable and inclusive San Diego,” said Mayor Todd Gloria, City of San Diego, study sponsor.

A CALL TO ACTION

To maintain our regional competitiveness, we need to create 50,000 quality jobs in small businesses by 2030, as outlined in EDC’s inclusive growth strategy. To do that, it’s imperative we help San Diego’s small and diverse businesses recover and thrive.

San Diego needs its largest employers (and our largest buyers) to commit to redirecting their procurement to local, small, and diverse businesses. To do this we must:

  1. understand individual institutions’ existing efforts;
  1. identify spend areas with high potential for inclusive, local sourcing; and
  1. define and track metrics that ultimately drive bidding processes.

We invite large firms to join San Diego Regional EDC’s Anchor Collaborative and help us shape and achieve this goal—join us here.

The report was unveiled today at the first in a series of Town Hall events. Watch a recording of the event here. Thank you to the study sponsors: SDG&E, City of San Diego, Civic Community Ventures, and the University of San Diego School of Business.

procurelocal.inclusivesd.org

Learn more about EDC’s inclusive growth goals

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: January 2021

By San Diego Regional EDC,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers December 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s Research Bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Key Takeaways

  1. San Diego lost 5,300 jobs, on net, in December, which is not typical during the holiday season.
  1. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.0 percent from 6.6 percent in November amid job losses and growth in the labor force.
  1. San Diego’s “K-shaped” recovery will exacerbate longstanding structural problems in the economy, making the case for an inclusive growth strategy even stronger.

Labor Market Overview

San Diego’s labor market suffered a setback in December after new business restrictions were put into place to combat a surge in COVID-19 infections and an alarming decline in ICU bed capacity. Local employers let go of 5,300 workers, on net, last month, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.0 percent from 6.6 percent in November. A drop in employment for the month of December is atypical, since holiday hiring is usually in full swing. Last month’s decline marks only the sixth time in 72 years where employers have let more workers go than they hired in December.

San Diego’s unemployment rate is lower than California’s 8.8 percent but significantly higher than the nation’s rate of 6.5 percent in December.

The causes for the rise in San Diego’s December unemployment rate are two-fold, and the news isn’t entirely bad: First, and most obviously, job losses drove the rate higher. However, this was compounded by an increase in the labor force of 12,200 people. The labor force vacillated for most of 2020 but ended the year close to its February, pre-pandemic level—good news for the labor market heading into 2021, if it is sustained.

Industry View

Leisure and Hospitality employers let go of 9,600 workers in December, which was more than enough to lower total employment. The lion’s share of hospitality job losses came from Accommodation and Food Services, which gave back 10,300 positions. Other Services, Government, Manufacturing, Educational Services (private, non-government), and Financial Activities each lost jobs. However, the losses for all of those industries totaled just 4,300, less than half of the layoffs experienced in Accommodation and Food Services alone.

The weakness in Leisure and Hospitality drove an even larger wedge between the jobs recovery for high-paying and low-paying positions, exacerbating a worrisome trend where the income and wealth gaps in San Diego will likely widen exponentially as a result of the pandemic-fueled recession.

Despite the decline in topline employment, job gains were apparent in a number of industries. Business and Professional Services added a healthy 2,500 workers in December, fueled by a gain of 2,700 in the crucial Professional, Scientific, and Technical segment, while retailers brought on 1,900 additional employees despite weak retail sales.

Behind the Numbers

All in all, December’s lackluster employment report is a downer, but not an unexpected one. With COVID-19 cases surging in the region and hospitals running out of valuable space for patients, business restrictions became necessary from a public health perspective.

As mentioned, the decline in employment last month is not typical for December, but it may bode well for January’s employment report. Under more normal circumstances, January typically reveals job losses as seasonal workers are let go. However, given that seasonal hiring was more tepid in 2020, layoffs in January may be less pronounced.

Labor force growth in December is also encouraging if it can be sustained. The extension of federal emergency unemployment benefits should help to keep a floor under the workforce, since only people in the labor force can claim them. Additionally, despite the sharp drop in Leisure and Hospitality employment last month, many firms in the region are still hiring. Therefore, we can expect people to remain in the labor force as long as job growth resumes as we enter 2021.

Unfortunately, these are about the only silver linings in December’s jobs report.

Annual revisions to the 2020 jobs numbers will be released by California EDD on Friday, March 12. Typically, revisions show greater job losses than were initially reported during recession periods. This is because the Labor Department estimates the pace of business formations in a given month, which usually assumes the addition of at least some new jobs as new firms come online. However, a Census-like count of business formation carried out after the initial estimates are released usually shows more business closures, on net, which thereby reduces the level of employment. So, in all likelihood, 2020 revisions could reveal deeper job losses last year than initially reported.

The shape and timbre of the jobs recovery means that even more work will be needed to shore up the local economy. The exponential widening in wealth and income gaps from the “K-shaped” recovery to-date will mean even more aggressive policies aimed at protecting and empowering our lowest-paid workers. Also, declines in the labor force earlier in 2020 were in large part the result of women leaving the workforce. If 2021 exhibits a repeat of that contraction, then it will almost certainly lead to greater disparities in gender pay. Finally, housing has continued to become even less affordable amid high unemployment and rising home values across the region.

It will take intentional and effective action to get this recovery right. It is now more important than ever to ensure greater access to higher education and worker training for our region’s lower-income households. Additionally, companies may also want to consider employee-ownership models, like the one Taylor Guitars recently announced, to give workers a larger stake in their economic fortunes. By offering a pathway to higher paying, more stable employment, we can ensure a more resilient and vibrant San Diego in the future, which will benefit all of us for decades to come.

Learn more about San Diego’s right recovery

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Economy in crisis: Structural challenges will persist after economy recovers

By San Diego Regional EDC,

Key Takeaways

  1. San Diego’s jobs recovery has left the lowest-paid workers behind.
  1. Disproportionate job losses and the possibility that lower-paid residents will owe large sums in back-rent will exponentially exacerbate wealth inequality.
  1. Lower mortgage rates drove up house prices, making housing even less affordable despite record job losses and elevated unemployment.

Needless to say, 2020 was a rough year. But it was far worse for some than others.

San Diego employers added a better than expected 14,300 jobs in November, including a generous push by retailers who put 1,800 people back to work even as retail sales backtracked. Nonetheless, the “K-shaped” recovery has persisted, where middle- and upper-income workers either never lost or quickly recovered their jobs while lower-income jobholders were furloughed indefinitely or laid off.

As of November, San Diego nonfarm employment rested 6 percent below its February 2020 peak. However, jobs paying less than $41,000 per year—the threshold associated with quality jobs in the region—remained stuck 18 percent below their pre-COVID peak. Moreover, low-income employment cratered by some 43 percent from February to April last year, compared with 15 percent for all jobs.

Additionally, six industries, including Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, have reclaimed all of the jobs lost to the COVID downturn, whereas wholesalers have recouped a meager 11 percent of the positions cut last year and information has only recovered one in eight positions.

This could have lasting impacts even after the jobs recovery is complete.

More than 60 percent of workers in the lowest-paid positions in San Diego are non-white versus 56.6 percent in all industries. So, to add “injury to insult,” minority workers that have suffered through months of intense social unrest this past year have simultaneously juggled disproportionate job losses.

Fortunately, eviction moratoriums were put into place last year that prevented many people from being evicted for nonpayment. But landlords can once again legally collect on back-rent or issue evictions if the statewide moratorium is lifted on January 31. People making less than $41,000 are far more likely to live paycheck-to-paycheck. In other words, a large swath of the population is entering 2021 with sizeable arrears to be paid off—something that’s tough enough for low-income workers even while employed, and even more difficult for the 18 percent of these folks who are still without jobs.

Worse, the wealth effects from this downturn have been particularly stark. Middle- and upper-income workers—most of whom already had some sort of savings and are much more likely to be homeowners—have been able to capitalize on lower interest rates and higher stock valuations all while holding onto their jobs. Meanwhile, most people making less than $41,000 a year were unable to amass significant savings, let alone any sort of real wealth, in the months and years leading up to 2020. The outright loss of income for so many of these workers most likely means an exponential widening in the wealth gap in San Diego.

HOMEOWNERSHIP EVEN LESS ATTAINABLE

Speaking of lower interest rates, San Diegans took full advantage of the 210-basis point drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate between November 2018 and November 2020.

San Diego’s housing market is significantly more sensitive to mortgage rates than many other parts of the state and country, in no small part because of the high cost of living in the region. In November 2018, when the average 30-year mortgage rate was 4.9 percent, the median home value was $659,500. A mortgage financed on that amount, minus a 20 percent down payment, would have totaled $1,008,118 over the life of the loan, or $2,800 per month. However, the cost of that same mortgage after the 30-year rate dropped to 2.8 percent would be $780,496, or $227,622 less than the 4.9 percent loan and $2,168 per month. Given all of this, rising home prices over the past two years or so make sense from a microeconomic point of view.

Even so, a 22 percent year-over-year increase in home prices as of December 2020 amid record job losses and elevated unemployment seems suspect. Indeed, calculating a housing affordability index that takes unemployment into account shows that housing has become increasingly unaffordable.

WE MUST TAKE ACTION

In sum, San Diego is likely to face myriad structural issues long after the economy has technically emerged from recession. Income and wealth gaps are likely to have been widened just like they have after each recession for the past 30 years. And jobless residents who were afforded a temporary reprieve from being evicted may find themselves in a situation where they owe large sums of money to their landlords.

A debt-ridden middle and upper-middle class has been tough enough on the economy as college graduates pay off their student loans. However, lower-income households tend to spend a much larger share of their paychecks than middle- and higher-income households, so having these funds siphoned off into repaying back-rent could disrupt consumer spending even more markedly for months, if not years, after the dust settles.

It will take more than just empathy to bridge these gaps and get this recovery right. It is now more important than ever to ensure greater access to higher education and worker training for our region’s lower-income households. Additionally, companies may also want to consider employee-ownership models, like Taylor Guitars, to give workers a larger stake in the economic fortunes of the businesses they work for. By offering a pathway to higher paying, more stable employment, we can ensure a more resilient and vibrant San Diego in the future, which will benefit all of us for decades to come.

Learn more about San Diego’s right recovery

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San Diego’s Economic Pulse: December 2020

By EDC Research Team,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers November 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Key Takeaways

  1. Unemployment falls to 6.6 percent.
  1. San Diego retailers gear up for holiday season by hiring 1,800 employees, but sales continue to suffer.
  1. Shop local this holiday season and wear a mask.

Labor Market Overview

The region’s unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in November, down from a revised 7.5 percent in October 2020, and still more than twice the year-ago estimate of 2.9 percent. Unemployment continues to increase in San Diego’s unincorporated and poorer areas, while falling in wealthier areas. The highest unemployment area in the region was Bostonia at 12.4 percent followed by National City at 10.3 percent, and the lowest was Solana Beach at 3.6 percent.

The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than California’s unemployment rate of 7.9 percent, but slightly higher than the national rate of 6.4 percent. While unemployment continues to fall, much of the improvement can be attributed to government support. In fact, unemployment claims increased again this week showing as emergency aid has dried up—proof the local job market could once again backtrack in the coming months.

Total nonfarm employment increased by 14,300 in November. Trade, transportation, and utilities accounted for the largest monthly gains, adding 8,200 jobs last month, primarily concentrated in retail trade (up 1,800 jobs). Even so, compared to a year ago, retail trade is still down 6,200 jobs. Professional and business services followed with an increase of 2,800 jobs. Job gains were driven by administrative and support services, which added 1,800 jobs. Food services and drinking places continue to struggle, shedding 1,000 jobs last month, even before the mandatory closures that took place in December.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego nonfarm employment remains down 97,700 jobs, or 6.4 percent. Leisure and hospitality represent the largest share, down 35,300 jobs. Accommodation is down 12,900 jobs over the year, and food services and drinking places are down 22,400.

Retail Sales Decline

November marked the beginning of the holiday shopping season as shown by an increase in retail employment in San Diego. However, nationwide retail sales numbers were gloomy. Retail sales were down 1.1 percent from October (seasonally adjusted), which was much worse than expected and likely impacted by increased COVID-19 infections and decreasing household income as expanded unemployment benefits expired. Without a stimulus relief package from Congress, retail sales declines will likely continue and perhaps become severe as millions lose unemployment benefits the day after Christmas.

Department store sales in the U.S. declined by 19 percent since this time last year and 7.7 percent since last month. Clothing and clothing accessories stores declined by 16.1 percent since last year and 6.8 percent since last month. Food service and drinking place stores declined by nearly one percent since last year and 4 percent since last month due to mandatory stay at home closures.

November’s retail sales were the worst since April, adding to the already growing list of signs that a slowdown in the recovery could be imminent. As San Diego’s retailers hire more employees for the holiday season, the call to shop local and safely becomes more necessary, especially given what appears to be a slowdown in consumer spending. Small businesses drive San Diego’s economy and create thriving neighborhoods. Check out some local favorites around the County.

 

For more COVID-19 recovery resources and information, please visit this page.

EDC is here to help. You can use the button below to request our assistance with finding information, applying to relief programs, and more.

Request EDC assistance

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Economy in crisis: Job growth slows as we head into New Year

By Nate Kelley,

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  1. After an impressive October employment report, San Diego is set to end the year on a down note.
  1. Job growth in November is expected to slow, similar to the U.S., and fresh stay-at-home orders set the stage for a weak December and January.
  1. The string of weak employment expectations could delay a return to full employment from Spring 2021 to the Fall.

Given the way 2020 has unfolded to date, it’s only fitting that the year would end with a fizzle instead of a sizzle.

It looks like November’s jobs report for San Diego will serve up a slowdown similar to what was seen nationally. For the U.S., payroll job growth slowed substantially from 610,000 net jobs gained in October to a worse-than-expected 245,000 in November, on a seasonally adjusted basis. On a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, which is how the San Diego employment figures are delivered, U.S. job gains were cut by about two-thirds, from 1,587,000 in October to 517,000 in November. The fortunes of San Diego’s job market are tightly tethered to those of the nation’s, so we can expect a similar dynamic to play out here.

We won’t know for sure until the San Diego jobs numbers are officially released next Friday, December 18. But we can surmise some baseline conclusions based on the U.S. jobs numbers, California continuing claims for unemployment insurance, and recent stay-at-home orders issued by the state and county.

Based on the historical relationship between U.S. and local employment, it looks like San Diego gained anywhere between 7,500 and 8,000 jobs in November, down considerably from 21,500 the month prior. Moreover, some push and pull between industries will likely emerge.

The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a different survey than the one used to estimate nonfarm payrolls, appears poised to fall further despite the anticipated slowdown in payroll job growth. After falling 1.2 percentage points in October, from 8.9 percent to 7.7 percent, the rate could fall to around 7 percent in November. October’s employment report showed that a record 55,800 workers joined or rejoined the labor force, which has the effect of pushing the unemployment rate higher. So, if any of the mad rush back into the labor market was reversed last month, then the jobless rate could be shown to have fallen even as low as 6 to 6.5 percent.

SOFT END TO THE YEAR?

With the labor market slowing in November, it seems like a safe bet to assume a setback is in the cards for December, especially in light of the most recent COVID-19 shutdown orders. This certainly appeared to be the case in July when San Diego County reissued directives for non-essential businesses to halt or reduce operations as COVID infections surged and employment took a step back.

However, since San Diego’s job numbers are not adjusted for seasonality like the national figures, it’s important to realize that monthly employment patterns may reflect the seasonal ebb and flow of the job market. Looking back through history, San Diego has experienced July employment declines in 54 of the past 72 years that data are available, making it especially tough to tell if the dip this past summer was shutdown-related or simply a normal seasonal occurrence. In fact, the drop in July was just about average—slightly less so, actually—than those seen in most other years.

On the other side of the coin, employment has climbed in every December, except five, in the last 71 years as holiday hiring picked up. So, barring a double-dip recession in the region, the odds of any large-scale net job losses in December are slim. The more likely outcome is a slower-than-average job build if retailers and leisure businesses don’t bring on their usual volume of holiday staff—quite likely, given the fresh round of stay-at-home orders issued for the county.

MIXING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER

All in all, San Diego is looking at a string of underwhelming employment reports over the next several months. November will not repeat October’s healthy gains, and December could be flat to very modestly negative as holiday hiring is on pause amid COVID-induced shutdowns. January tends to show job losses as temporary holiday help is let go. However, if December holiday hiring is less robust than normal this year, then there will be fewer holiday workers exiting the payrolls in the beginning of next year. Nonetheless, most companies don’t tend to bring on many new hires in January, since interviewing and onboarding job candidates is usually interrupted by the holidays in November and December, setting the stage for a pretty weak month regardless.

It was recently mentioned that San Diego could return to full employment by April of next year if the average pace of hiring from April to October of this year was maintained. However, this is looking less and less likely, and a weak to flat November and December would put full employment closer to Fall 2021.

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Release: EDC study finds one in four local firms engaged in AI

By Nate Kelley,

EDC study quantifies impact of artificial intelligence, machine learning

San Diego industries that are embracing artificial intelligence (AI) support an estimated 175,680 jobs and $33.3 billion in annual gross regional product, according to a study released today by San Diego Regional EDC. Underwritten by Booz Allen Hamilton, “Measuring the Future: AI and San Diego’s Economy” is the first in a series of reports that will identify key industries and clusters where AI and machine learning (ML) have been implemented, and ultimately quantify the impacts of these technologies on San Diego’s regional economy.

The study—available at SanDiegoAI.org—includes a historic timeline, cluster map, and cross-references AI patent language with job postings to anticipate the future impacts of AI and ML on the job market.

AI and ML technologies have swiftly infiltrated most every facet of our lives as computing power and speed increase. Self-driving cars, algorithmic trading, customer experience bots and AI assistants like Siri and Alexa have become commonplace tools used by people at home and at work.

“The proliferation of AI and ML technologies promises to be a transformative force for businesses worldwide—and like in many innovative industries—San Diego is at the forefront. With this report, the EDC Research Bureau helps paint a picture of the impact of AI, proving its potential to grow jobs and even help narrow gender and racial wage gaps,” said Mark Cafferty, president and CEO, San Diego Regional EDC.

Contrary to popular belief and despite current economic conditions, three in five AI developers (62 percent) expect to see the number of employees specifically engaged in AI-related work grow over the next 12 months. This means locally based AI talent could help meet growing demand across the U.S. as employers try to hire workers in earnest that possess skills readily available from San Diego AI. Notably, job postings data in Sun Belt metros like San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Tampa and Miami show that employers are struggling to fill positions requiring facial and speech recognition skills—key specializations of AI developers in San Diego. Meanwhile, predictive and forecasting AI could help alleviate hiring difficulties among firms in major economic and financial centers, including New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago. More than eight in 10 AI developers in San Diego specialize in machine or deep learning technologies, a fundamental building block for predictive AI.

Large local companies in San Diego like Booz Allen Hamilton, Northrop Grumman Corporation, ResMed and growing startups and small businesses like Lytx, Lockton, Traits AI and Semantic AI are helping to lead the charge in AI—enabling people and firms to operate more quickly and efficiently. Specifically, the use of AI or ML technologies largely supports four areas of firm activity: the development of new products and services, improved efficiency and productivity, reduced costs and an increase in business revenues.

“Booz Allen Hamilton is at the forefront of AI adoption, development and implementation, and we believe that San Diego’s companies can leverage this technology to meet their missions, attract talent and fuel economic activity,” said Joe Rohner, a Booz Allen director and leader in the firm’s analytics practice and AI services business. “We are energized that EDC’s report findings show local respondents see AI as truly helping the San Diego economy by creating more jobs—not eliminating them. People are essential to the ethical application of AI, and this technology will enable organizations and their workforce to increase productivity, quality and efficiency—in San Diego and globally.”

Despite AI’s productivity-boosting, job-creating power, a number of challenges remain. Top of mind for most local employers is the inability to source qualified talent. However, COVID-19 and the subsequent increase in remote work has expanded the talent pool for San Diego County’s AI and ML employers.

“Rapidly developing machine learning/artificial intelligence technology that enhances the work our men and women in uniform do every day is critical to the future of defense. Northrop Grumman is well positioned to continue to grow the local talent pipeline through our San Diego-based education programs so businesses in our community have the right skill sets available to support this important and rapidly evolving field,” said Alfredo Ramirez, Vice President of Northrop Grumman’s San Diego Autonomous Design Center of Excellence.

OTHER KEY FINDINGS

  • Average salary in AI/ML-concentrated industries is $127,960—3.9 percent above the national average for these industries and more than 70 percent above San Diego’s average worker salary.
  • For every 1,000 jobs gained in this cluster, another 1,400 jobs are created in other industries.
  • Survey proves AI adoption is creating job opportunities in the region:
    • 66 percent of firms agreed that the use of AI and ML has created new job opportunities
    • 54 percent of firms agree that AI and ML are increasing the need for more workers at their business
  • 31 percent of jobs in AI-concentrated fields require only a high school diploma and pay an average of $22.42 per hour
  • The boost to productivity and efficiency from AI and ML should lift wages in traditional or population-serving industries, which employ a larger share of women and non-white workers than other sectors, and could therefore potentially reduce gender and racial wage gaps as these technologies are adopted.

The report was produced by San Diego Regional EDC, underwritten by Booz Allen Hamilton, and sponsored by Northrop Grumman Corporation, ResMed, Lytx and Lockton.

Read the full study at SanDiegoAI.org

For more research from EDC, click here.

Economy in crisis: SD housing market advances, but geographic differences remain

By San Diego Regional EDC,

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  1. Despite ongoing economic pressure, San Diego home values and rents reached new peaks in October.
  1. Home prices and rents are highest along the coast, but price increases have been most pronounced in more rural, inland areas of the county.
  1. Areas in the county with the highest unemployment rate tend to have the lowest cost of living, however prices are increasing quickest in those areas.

San Diego home prices and rents continued to rise in October, despite the ongoing economic pressures presented by Covid-19 and efforts to contain the virus. According to Zillow, the median value of a middle-tier home advanced 1.6 percent from September to reach a new peak of $649,474*, up 7.3 percent from February and up 9.5 percent from a year ago. Meanwhile, average rents reached $2,363, also a fresh high, up 1.4 percent from February and 2.1 percent from a year earlier.

San Diego home prices and rents are both growing faster than other large California metro areas like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara, as well as the U.S. average. Even so, San Diego’s record-breaking house prices and rents are not unique. Of the 914 metropolitan and micropolitan regions covered, Zillow reported new home price peaks in 645 (71 percent) of them, and rents are topping out in 88 percent of 107 regions tracked by the real estate company.

San Diego home values are high, and they’re rising at an accelerated pace.

 

Rent increases have slowed but continue to climb faster than the U.S. and other California metros.

Sub-regional look presents an interesting picture

Housing price appreciation has been most pronounced in largely rural areas. Jacumba home values have surged by more than 23 percent over the past year, while prices in Ranchita, Tecate, and Warner Springs are all up between 18 and 19 percent. Yet, the median price for a home in Downtown has inched higher by a much less impressive 2.7 percent year-over-year.

A similar trend plays out when looking at rental values within the county. Rents in Ramona have jetted 15.8 percent higher over the past year, while Escondido rents are up some 6.5 percent. Coincidentally, rents have fallen in more central locations like University City, Carmel Valley, and Downtown.

Generally speaking, housing price appreciation and rental increases are most pronounced in areas where prices and rents are relatively low. This could reflect a natural migration out and away from the City of San Diego as buyers are seeking out price deals in more affordable, inland areas. This is especially true as those who are able to work from home no longer have to weigh as heavily the idea of a longer commute when deciding where to buy.

Also worth noting, is that home values and rental prices coincide with economic outcomes in these areas. For example, in Solana Beach, the median home price is more than $1.5 million, and the unemployment rate is just 4.2 percent—well below the county rate of 7.7 percent. By contrast, the median home price is $480,349 in National City, where unemployment is stuck at 11.5 percent. Similarly, rents are topping out at nearly $3,300 per month in low-unemployment Solana Beach, while renters are paying just over $1,800 per month in El Cajon where the jobless rate hovers at 11.4 percent.

The map below clearly shows how home prices and rents are growing in areas where properties are cheaper. Those regions are also the pockets of the county where joblessness is rampant.

Select between home prices, rents, and unemployment below using the ‘Metric’ dropdown, and choose between Level and YoY % change in the ‘Transformation’ dropdown to explore more.

ARE POORER SAN DIEGANS BEING PRICED OUT?

The relationship between home values (an indicator of how much workers in an area can afford) and labor market outcomes during the Covid-19 downturn shines a harsh light on the economic disparities affecting San Diegans with different socioeconomic backgrounds. Workers in areas where home values and rents are lower are far and away more likely to be without a job as Covid-related restrictions force business closures throughout the county.

This relationship statistically significant, offering up yet another piece of hard evidence that the most recent recession has disproportionately hurt poorer people.

What’s worse is that the torrid pace of price growth for homes and rental properties in higher-unemployment regions may force the most vulnerable San Diegans out of those areas as prices become unaffordable. This would exacerbate an already-troubling trend that has pushed more people out of the region than into it over the past decade.

Now, more than ever, we need to analyze our options and develop policies that help to prevent San Diegans from being priced out of the region. Cultivating and retaining a strong local workforce isn’t just about maintaining San Diego’s identity, it’s also about creating a stronger, more resilient region in coming years that will be better able to withstand the inevitable next downturn. Go here to learn more about how EDC is working to ensure San Diego gets this recovery right.

*Due to availability of data and varying sources, these numbers differ slightly from others we’ve recently posted.

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San Diego’s Economic Pulse: November 2020

By San Diego Regional EDC,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers October 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s Research Bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  1. San Diego’s jobs recovery accelerated in October from previous months, but remains uneven across industries.
  1. San Diego employers brought back 21,500 workers, lowering the unemployment rate from 8.9 percent to 7.7 percent.
  1. Job gains were widespread, and workers returned to the labor force in record numbers.

San Diego’s job market recovered a healthy 21,500 jobs in October from the month prior. Job gains pushed the unemployment rate lower by 1.2 percentage points, from a revised 8.9 percent (initially reported as 9.0 percent) to 7.7 percent. This is in spite of a huge increase in the labor force, which welcomed back some 55,800 workers in October from September.

The topline numbers are encouraging, and last month’s jobs build shows that San Diego has recovered just more than half (52.4 percent) of the 223,700 payroll jobs lost between February and April as the COVID-19 outbreak forced state and county officials to shut down many sectors of the economy. That said, employment remains 7.0 percent lower than it was a year prior, and the jobless rate is still 4.5 percentage points higher than the 3.2 percent logged in February.

MOST INDUSTRIES CONTRIBUTE TO GAINS

Most industries reported job additions last month, with gains concentrated in business and professional services (+5,200 jobs) and construction (+4,100 jobs). Leisure and hospitality and retail, both of which were disproportionately hurt by COVID-related shutdowns, added back 3,200 and 2,100 jobs, respectively. Restaurants brought back 2,400 workers, making up the vast majority of gains in leisure and hospitality. Local government, which includes public school teachers and administrators, brought back 2,700 workers, while state agencies added 2,500 to payrolls last month.

Nonetheless, several sectors shed jobs, providing a partial offset to an otherwise upbeat employment report. Wholesalers let go of 1,200 workers, while federal government agencies, manufacturers, and other service providers laid off a combined 1,500 people.

The recovery across industries has been far from homogenous. Federal government agencies and builders have recovered all of their lost jobs, and then some. Other industries, like utilities and mining and logging, never lost jobs to begin with. Meanwhile, business and professional services are within striking distance of February’s pre-COVID employment peak. Still others, like wholesale trade and information, have only made a tiny dent in their respective jobs recoveries.

REGIONAL VIEW

Similar to industries, unemployment varies considerably across the county’s 25 cities. For instance, the jobless rate in Solana Beach stands at just 4.2 percent, whereas the rate is perched at a stubbornly high 14.3 percent in Bostonia. The rate for the City of San Diego was 7.4 percent last month, consistent with the 7.7 percent rate logged for the county.

BEHIND THE NUMBERS

At least several items stand out in the latest employment report.

October’s torrid labor force gains are both impressive and a relief. After an unsettling exodus of 45,100 workers in March and April, the civilian labor force hovered roughly 3 percent lower than its February peak in August and September.

Three percent may not sound like a lot on the surface, but it can have tangible impacts in a number of ways. First, a contracting labor force has the effect of lowering the unemployment rate. That’s because people are no longer counted as unemployed once they leave the labor force. This can have the secondary effect of making the jobs recovery seem stronger than it really is, which can distort business decisions. Second, research suggests that regional economies with smaller labor forces relative to the size of their populations tend to suffer more frequent and more severe downturns in the face of economic shocks. Finally, a shrinking labor force can raise labor costs—already the largest single expense item on most companies’ balance sheets—as firms are forced to compete for a smaller number of job applicants. So, last month’s bounce in the labor force, which easily more than undid the outflow of workers earlier in the pandemic, is a welcome sign, if sustained in coming months.

Another item bears interest, but is somewhat less sanguine. Activity has rebounded for San Diego’s hotels since the spring and summer, yet employment hasn’t followed suit. Both supply and demand for hotel rooms across the county have increased markedly from lows recorded in March and April, and average daily rates being charged for these rooms have climbed more than 50 percent during that time.

Still, accommodations employment is 38.5 percent lower than it was in February and 40.6 percent lower than it was in October 2019. It remains to be seen whether this reflects extra caution on the part of hotel owners, making sure that the risk of future shutdowns has dissipated before bringing workers back, or if it indicates a structural shift in the business model that has permanently reduced the need for employees.

WRAPPING IT UP

As mentioned, last month’s employment report is encouraging for a number of reasons. San Diego’s jobs recovery has thus far outpaced the rest of the state’s, including the broader Southern California region. However, San Diego’s recovery has lagged that of the nation.

Given the current dynamics, it would take San Diego slightly longer to recover all of the jobs lost from COVID than the U.S. as a whole. If the average pace of job growth from April through October were extended outward, the U.S. would recover all of its lost jobs by February 2021 versus April 2021 for San Diego. Of course, a number of factors could—and likely will—affect this relationship, including the emergence of an effective vaccine and an alarming number of new cases across a broader swath of the nation.

Regardless of the timing, San Diego’s job market continues to heal. Not only are the employment report details mostly encouraging, but efforts are underway to ensure that the recovery reaches a broader group of San Diegans. While the pain of the COVID downturn has been acute, there has arguably never been a better time to concentrate on rebuilding a stronger and more inclusive economy in the future.

For more COVID-19 recovery resources and information, please visit this page.

EDC is here to help. You can use the button below to request our assistance with finding information, applying to relief programs, and more.

Request EDC assistance

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EDC, City of SD release study on creative economy

By Jordan Latchford,

First-of-its-kind study highlights impact on San Diego economy, including $11B generated and more than 100K employed

Of note, data collected is pre-COVID from 2019.

In order to better understand the impact on our communities, EDC and the City of San Diego have released the first comprehensive study analyzing the intersection between San Diego’s creative industries and the local economy.

Together with the City’s Commission for Arts and Culture and the Economic Development Department, EDC authored the 2020 Creative Economy Study to examine the economic impact creative industries and their workers have on the region.

“San Diego’s creative industries have an important ripple effect in the broader economy. Every job in the creative industry supports another 1.1 jobs,” said Christina Bibler, Director of the City’s Economic Development Department. “This means that creative industries are a powerful component in the region, with many industries employing creative workers.” 

The creative economy is defined as a sector made up of non-profit and for-profit businesses and individuals who produce cultural, artistic and design goods or services and intellectual property. In San Diego, the creative economy employs more than 107,000 people at nearly 7,400 creative firms and organizations and generates more than $11 billion annually.

“To grow San Diego’s creative economy, we first need to understand it. This report is the starting point to understanding the space and trends over time,” said Jonathon Glus, Executive Director of the Commission for Arts and Culture. “Investing in creative industries can help advance San Diego as a creative city and it’s the ideal platform for cross-sector collaboration and innovation.” 

The study measured the size of the creative economy and identified characteristics unique to San Diego that could provide future economic growth potential. The study spanned 71 industries and 77 unique occupations.

Study findings include:

  • 59% of the creative economy in San Diego is for-profit, 34% nonprofit and others (including government employers and independent contractors).
  • The majority of creative firms and organizations are small, with 19 or fewer employees.
  • 41% of creative industry employers hire a large number of contractors.
  • The median annual income for creative occupations is $75,000.

“With a 23% decline in jobs, the arts have been hit even harder by the pandemic than most sectors of our economy,” said Mark Cafferty, president and CEO, San Diego Regional EDC. “As San Diego recovers, it is imperative we continue to work with our arts and cultural leaders to create a more diverse and resilient arts industry to weather future economic downturns—for the sake of the vibrancy of our communities and our culture.” 

Completed in May 2020, the study utilizes 2019 information. The data was collected pre-COVID-19 and prior to the implementation of Assembly Bill 5 Worker status: Employee and Independent Contractors (AB 5).

As of August 2020, the economic impact of job loss in San Diego’s creative industries due to COVID-19 is estimated to be a decline of $2.1 billion. 

READ THE REPORT

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For more COVID-19 recovery resources and information, please visit our COVID-19 resource page.

Industry Profiles are back…and better

By EDC Research Bureau,

EDC’s Industry Profiles are back…and better than ever. Consistently our most visited pages on the former EDC site, we took some time to give them the refresh they deserved.

Not sure what we mean by ‘Industry Profiles’?

With breakthrough technology companies and research organizations, the largest military concentration in the world and a strong tourism industry, the San Diego region has one of the most dynamic economies in the country. Created by our Research Bureau, these profiles take a deep dive into the industries that make San Diego the innovation hub that it is, with data on employment, businesses, wages, and more.

San Diego regional industries to explore:

Visit our Research Page to see the new profiles